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Título

Inflation effect on consumption of milk and dairy products in the pre-pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic periods

Titulo em português

Efeito da inflação no consumo de leite e derivados no período pré-pandêmino, pandêmico e pós-pandêmico

Introdução (obrigatório)

The consumption of milk and its derivatives is relevant in discussions on food security in the context of socioeconomic variations faced in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a health crisis scenario and, in turn, led to an economic crisis resulting from an increase in the prices of various products.
With the increase in inflation and the increase in the prices of food products, Rodrigues et al. (2024) indicated that there has been a change in animal protein consumption habits, with beef, poultry, and eggs being the most consumed and canned goods, seafood and fish being the least consumed.
Such a change in consumption habits is caused by the pandemic itself with the restriction of access to public places that harmed commerce, but also by economic issues such as price increases. As a result, inflation directly affects the purchasing power of consumers and, consequently, their consumption habits, which, during the pandemic, increased the prices of food products (SCHNEIDER et al., 2020; BACCARIN and OLIVEIRA, 2021) due to the reduction in production, logistical problems, and high demand contributed to this increase (OLIVEIRA and CECHIN, 2021; GALINDO, 2022).
Consequently, it is possible to infer that the consumption of milk and dairy products during the pandemic period followed the variations in prices, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market conditions. Post-pandemic, economic recovery and price stabilization are expected to interfere with consumption trends. Thus, the present work intends to analyze how inflation affected the consumption of milk and dairy products in Brazil, with the main objective of investigating the influence of inflation on the consumption of milk and dairy products in the pre-pandemic, throughout the pandemic and post-pandemic period in Brazil.

Material e métodos (obrigatório)

The work has a quantitative character, based on an econometric analysis with secondary data. According to Gujarati (2006), econometrics uses statistics with economic data to provide an empirical basis for economic-mathematical models, intending to explain the relationships between economic variables. The selected econometric model is based on multiple linear regression, using the method of least squares (Y=a_0+a_1 X_1+a_2 X_2+a_3 X_3+⋯+a_n X_n+εYX_n ). Which, the dependent variable (Y) represents the variation in inflation measured by the General Price Index on Internal Availability (IGP-DI), while the independent or explanatory variables (X_n) are related to the consumption of milk and dairy products such as butter and powdered milk. Data extracted from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA, 2024) on consumption and from FGV Dados (2024) for the IGP-DI were used, referring to the years 2013 to 2024 (until May). To validate the econometric model, statistical tests of normality, heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, and multicollinearity were performed. To analyze consumption in the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods, analysis of variance was used, considering a confidence level of 90%.

Resultados e discussão (obrigatório)

The parameters estimated by the econometric model (R² = 0.602) suggest that the consumption of milk and dairy products is positively and negatively influenced by the inflation of the period. Through the estimated coefficients, there was a preference for the consumption of fluid milk (1.143), whole milk powder (0.271), and skim milk powder (0.075), whose parameters indicate an increase in consumption. Butter (-0.012) and cheese (-0.673) had a decrease in consumption in the period. By the economic theory of the choice of the consumer, the behavior presented of consumption points out that milk, both fluid and powdered are substitute goods for butter and cheese, whose behaviors are antagonistic as there is an increase in their prices. Additionally, when comparing the three periods, pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic, significant differences were observed in the consumption of cheese (p = 0.061), milk powder (p = 0.095), and fluid milk (p = 0.036), indicating that the consumption of these foods varied across the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. No significant differences were found for the butter consumption (p = 0.968) and skim milk powder (p = 0.428), suggesting that the consumption of these products remained similar across the three periods.

Conclusão (obrigatório)

The consumption of milk and its derivatives in the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods showed oscillations due to high prices. Cheese, whole milk powder, and fluid milk showed different intakes in the three periods in which cheese had a decrease in consumption, while whole milk powder and fluid milk had an increase in their consumption.

Referências bibliográficas (opcional)

BACCARIN, J. G.; OLIVEIRA, J. A. Inflação de alimentos no Brasil em período da pandemia da Covid 19, continuidade e mudanças. Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional, v. 28, p. e021002-e021002, 2021.

FGV DADOS. Índice Geral de Preços (Série histórica), 2024.

GUJARATI, D. N. Econometria básica. 4. ed. São Paulo: Elsevier, 2006.

GALINDO, E.; TEIXEIRA, M. A.; ARAÚJO, M.; MOTTA, R.; PESSOA, M.; MENDES, L.; RENNO, L. Efeitos da pandemia na alimentação e na situação da segurança alimentar no Brasil. Freie Universität Berlin, [S.L.]. 2022.

OLIVEIRA, W. R. S.; CECHIN, A. Efeitos da pandemia da COVID-19 nos preços dos alimentos no Brasil. Revista Catarinense de Economia, v. 5, n. 2, p. 141-155, 2021.

RODRIGUES, G. F.; SANTANA, A. G.; SHINOHARA, N. K. S.; NASCIMENTO, E. R. do; CUNHA FILHO, M. Análise do consumo de proteína animal no Brasil antes e durante a pandemia da COVID-19. OBSERVATÓRIO DE LA ECONOMÍA LATINOAMERICANA, [S. l.], v. 22, n. 5, p. e4118 , 2024. DOI: 10.55905/oelv22n5-162.

SCHNEIDER, S.; CASSOL, A.; LEONARDI, A.; MARINHO, M. M. Os efeitos da pandemia da Covid-19 sobre o agronegócio e a alimentação. Estudos avançados, v. 34, n. 100, p. 167-188, 2020.

United States Department of Agriculture. Foreign Agricultural Service Dataset, 2024.